|
This week is extremely light in terms of the number of economic reports
that are scheduled for release that may influence mortgage rates. In fact,
there is only one monthly report scheduled and it is not considered to be
highly important to the markets. There are several Treasury auctions
scheduled during the week, but only two of them are worth watching. This
makes it likely that stock movement will heavily influence bond trading and
mortgage rates several days.
June's Trade Balance is the only monthly economic data, scheduled to be
posted early Tuesday morning. It gives us the size of the U.S. trade
deficit but is considered to be of low importance to the bond market and
usually has little impact on mortgage rates. Analysts are expecting to see
a $43.4 billion trade deficit, but it will take a wide variance to directly
influence mortgage pricing.
The two important Treasury auctions will take place during the middle part
of the week. The 10-year Note auction will be held Wednesday while 30-year
Bonds will be sold Thursday. We often see some weakness in bonds ahead of
the sales as the firms participating prepare for them. However, as long as
they are met with decent demand from investors, the firms usually buy them
back. This tends to help recover any presale losses. But, if the sales are
met with a lackluster interest from investors- particularly international
buyers, the bond market may move lower after the results are posted and
mortgage rates may move higher. Those results will be announced at 1:00 PM
each sale day.
Also worth noting are several speaking engagements by multiple Fed members
this week. These appearances are common and many go unnoticed on a regular
basis. However, with no important economic data scheduled to drive bond
trading and the broader financial markets, their words will draw even more
attention than usual. Especially since last Friday’s Employment report disappointed
many analysts and there is now more debate about when the Fed may start
tapering their current bond-buying program (QE3). Any statements related to
that topic during their speeches this week will become extremely newsworthy
and could easily affect mortgage rates.
Overall, it is difficult to label one particular day as the most important
with so little to choose from. It will be interesting to see if Friday's
bond rally will hold in tomorrow’s trading. If so, we should see an
improvement in rates tomorrow due to improvements in bonds late Friday
afternoon. I never recommend straying far from your mortgage professional
if still floating an interest rate, however, the markets and mortgage
pricing are likely going to be a calmer the next several days than they
have during recent weeks. That is unless, something unexpected happens,
which is always a possibility.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my
closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking
place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between
21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from
now...
|
No comments:
Post a Comment