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Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, erasing Friday’s
late afternoon gains. The stock markets are starting the week in negative
ground with the Dow down 64 points and the Nasdaq down 4 points. The bond
market is currently down 8/32, but due to strength late Friday we should
see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates if comparing to Friday’s
early pricing.
There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. In fact, this
week is extremely light in terms of the number of mortgage-relevant
economic reports. There is only one monthly report scheduled in addition to
two Treasury auctions in the middle of the week that may influence mortgage
rates. This makes it likely that stock movement will heavily influence bond
trading and mortgage rates several days.
Tomorrow has the only monthly economic news of the week with the posting of
June's Trade Balance. It gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but is
considered to be of low importance to the bond market and usually has
little impact on mortgage rates. Analysts are expecting to see a $43.4
billion trade deficit, but it will take a wide variance to directly
influence mortgage pricing.
Also worth noting are several speaking engagements by multiple Fed members
this week. These appearances are common and many go unnoticed on a regular
basis. However, with no important economic data scheduled to drive bond
trading and the broader financial markets, their words will draw even more
attention than usual. Especially since last Friday’s Employment report
disappointed many analysts and there is now more debate about when the Fed may
start tapering their current bond-buying program (QE3). Any statements
related to that topic during their speeches this week will become extremely
newsworthy and could easily affect mortgage rates.
Overall, it is difficult to label one particular day as the most important
with so little to choose from. And just about any day could be considered
the lightest. I never recommend straying far from your mortgage
professional if still floating an interest rate, however, the markets and
mortgage pricing are likely going to be a bit more calm the next several
days than they have been during recent weeks. That is unless, something
unexpected happens, which is always a possibility.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my
closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking
place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between
21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from
now...
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