7-Gut checks before stock market open

	Need to Know SEPTEMBER 17, 2013 To all Gmail users: To ensure that you continue to see your MarketWatch emails, please drag and drop one of our emails into your Primary tab and click "Yes" when asked if you would like to do this for future messages from MarketWatch. You can also add "MarketWatch" to your Gmail contacts list or filters. 7 gut checks before the stock market opens By Barbara Kollmeyer   lev radin/Shutterstock.com Good morning. It was a short Summers, Charlie Brown. Stock futures are stagnating after the S&P 500  pushed to a near-record Monday on news that Larry Summers took his name out of the running for the top Fed job (Yellen's biggest cheerleader: Bill Gross ). It's only natural that with the Fed meeting kicking off Tuesday, and a token taper on the way, investors, like Charlie Brown, are worried that their football may be yanked away. That has helped the dollar regain a foothold. The WSJ's Fedwatcher Jon Hilsenrath says the QE decision should be a "close call." He says investors also need to look out for the Fed's forward guidance amid signs officials are struggling to justify a commitment to low rates. If it switches now, the implication is that it can switch it anytime, says Hilsenrath. Trying to get your game plan ready ahead of the Fed? Blogger Lee Adler  at the Wall Street Examiner  reminds us to ignore the head fake and wait for the real move, as the first reaction (expected Wednesday) is often reversed the next day (Thursday). Really, what's the worst that can happen in the great unwind? The fantasy dies, panic ensues and gold and silver investors are vindicated, says Bill Fleckenstein . Looking for a contrarian indicator? How about a bull in a party hat on the cover of Time Magazine ? On Jan. 22, 2007, Time's cover feature of China called for that market to keep rising, but a few months later, Shanghai stocks fell hard and fast. Not that we would say the mag-cover theory is always a sure thing. Key market gauges: Asia stocks  softened as investors geared up for the Fed meeting. European  stocks  also are down. Futures on the Dow , the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq  are hanging around the flat line. The economy: Consumer prices are due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, which should continued to show inflation remains contained. Economists are forecasting a 0.1% rise for August, the same for the core rate. At 10 a.m., Wells Fargo will release its home builder's index. Home sales seem to have slowed, at least for now due to higher mortgage rates. Also, the Census Bureau is due to release a bunch of data on the U.S. economy, including an update on how much the average American earns. Not that most of us can come close to anything like those on the Forbes list of billionaires. Earnings:Adobe Systems  is due to report third-quarter results after the close. Coty  and FactSet Research  also report Tuesday. The buzz: If #GTAV means nothing to you then a) you have a social life that involves real people or b) you are just too old. Shares of Take-Two Interactive  could get a bump for this reason: Guys on their way home with GTAV pic.twitter.com/HXyHhiMnEn — Esa China Lohk ~ (@JajairaIsDope) September 17, 2013 Grand Theft Auto V, published by Take-Two hits the shelves at midnight and in the U.K. there were reports of long lines and expectations that the game will smash sales records. It could also be a huge day for "sickies" as workers try to get their hands on the game, or just stay home to give it a spin. Huntsman  agrees to buy some Rockwood Holding  for $1.1 billion in cash. It's not moving the needle for either stock so far, though. Apple  topped S&P decliners on Monday after the WSJ reported that China Telecom Corp. is making customers pay more upfront for the new iPhones 5S.  Tossing in his two cents, Yacktman Asset Management's Donald Yacktman  says high profit margins mean Apple shares aren't cheap. He also said Samsung is going to eat the iPhone maker's lunch. Apple shares are down under a percent in premarket. Outerwall , formerly known as Coinstar, is tanking in premarket after slashing its third-quarter and full-year outlook on Monday, hitting shares in late trade. IBM  plans to pledge to spend $1 billion over four or five years on its Linux operating system that competes with Microsoft , The Wall Street Journal reported . Chart of the day: The dreaded black candlestick is back. J.C. Parets at All Star Charts  (h/t to Business Insider ) says they're showing up in the S&P 500, the Russell2000 , MidCap400 and even in MSCI Emerging Markets. The black candle shown on the chart below indicates exhaustion, followed by selling pressure, says Parets. Given the S&P is up nearly 4% in September, it wouldn't be unusual to see a reversal or key turning point be next, he cautions: Parets says the last time he blogged about black candles was last summer, when they started showing up for U.S. dollars and Treasurys at a time when the world was bearish toward equities and hiding out in those assets. Those candles turned out to mark highs for both the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury bonds. Worst-case scenario: a gap lower in any of those averages leaving that black candle all alone. Call of the day: How to trade the Fed taper? Avoid the dollar, says Marshall Gittler at IronFX Global . In a guest blog for CNBC, Gittler says he's been bullish on the dollar  for some time based on the view that with the Fed getting ready to taper and other central banks set to keep easing policies in place, the dollar would benefit from that divergence. However, that divergence is now turning into convergence. The dollar has been weakening as investors revise down forecasts for U.S. rates, while some other countries are seeing tightening expectations revised up. The best way forward, he says, is to avoid the dollar and look for trades in the cross rates where that divergence still seems likely.  He's long NZD/JPY , AUD/JPY , short EUR/GBP , EUR/NOK  and EUR/SEK, which he says are all ways to play policy divergence without involving the dollar. Random reads: Iran caused a stir on social media after briefly removing filters from Facebook and Twitter overnight. It lasted a whole several hours . Iran unblocks Facebook and Twitter. In related news, Iranian productivity falls 19000%. — David Schneider (@davidschneider) September 17, 2013 Frustrated by unmotivated and lazy kids? Tell them their real parents are dead. Don't be so soft. It worked great for one Chinese mom . After 19 hours, Costa Concordia is finally upright . Riches to rags -- from $30 billion to being off the billionaire's list -- Brazilian entrepreneur Eike Batista says he'll be back. "But I can be in white leggings and a white sports bra and I'm on a whole other level of (stuff) that those girls don't even get yet because they don't know how to do it." I know exactly how you feel, Miley . Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here  to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @bkollmeyer  on Twitter. 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